And then perform the calculation for each day (using the formula S2F BTC = 0,4 * SF^3 ) until you reach this chart.Įl success of this predictive model It has been such that many were quick to replicate and improve it, including Plan B itself, knowing that it was not perfect and never would be, for one simple reason: the markets and their reality are unpredictable.Īn example of these improvements can be seen in the model of Look into Bitcoin, in which we can see a similar behavior. Seen this way, it seems simple and it is, but to calculate this accurately it is necessary to have the flow data (existence) of BTC in the network, something for which you need day-to-day records of the amount of BTC generated in the network, what the nodes can indicate. Without major complications, Plan B devised this formula (corresponding to the fifth point above).Īnd from it and from all the analyzed data he managed to create this graph:Īt first glance we can see how clearly Bitcoin price evolution This is true for this model, even for the year 2020, which was already the future at the time this graph was generated, showing that the price of Bitcoin met the prediction with a certain margin. The above is the basic idea behind the Stock-to-Flow model just as Plan B thought in 2019. One base model, many Stock-to-Flow models to build The final model is generated mathematically, which synthesizes the above information plus additional data that the analyst wishes to add.Cycles get shorter, so this value needs to be adjusted to correct the model over time. Time spans are identified by dotted vertical lines on the S2F chart and identify market cycles (bull run, bear market, and average stabilization). Time Span = 463 (462,962 for better precision). This value is given by the formula: Time Span = (Blocks Generated / 3) / 144 The time span is calculated with a value of 463 days. An S2F cycle (known as a time span) is generated. ![]() In the initial model (there are several) the calculation takes into account 1 million lost coins.
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